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07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Home runs are not easy to hit, but the St. Louis Cardinals made it their job in last night's win over the Philadelphia Phillies. The NL Central-leading Cardinals will try to go deep again Tuesday in the second installment of this four-game series at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals were down by two in the fifth inning of Monday's game before Albert Pujols cracked a two-run homer followed by solo shots from Allen Craig and Skip Schumaker one out later to take the lead for good. Randy Winn then led off the sixth inning with a home run for the Cardinals, who went on to post an 8-4 victory, their sixth in a row.
Pujols collected two hits and three runs batted in, while Jon Jay went 2-for-3 with an RBI in a winning effort. Blake Hawksworth managed to pick up the win even though he gave up four runs and 10 hits over six innings of work.
"I got us in a hole early, but they picked me up and got the 'W'," Hawksworth said.
St. Louis was coming off a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers and is 5-0 on an eight-game homestand. It also sits a half-game ahead of Cincinnati in the NL Central standings.
The Cardinals have a good shot at staying on top in the division with Chris Carpenter slated to take the mound Tuesday night. Carpenter ended a three- start winless streak (0-2) the last time out on Thursday in a 7-1 win over the visiting Dodgers, as he tossed eight innings of one-run ball with six K's.
Carpenter pushed his mark to 10-3 in 20 starts to go along with a 3.16 earned run average. The right-hander and 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner is 7-2 in 11 home starts this season and will make his ninth career start against the Phillies. Carpenter is 4-2 with a less desirable 5.73 ERA in his first eight appearances against Philadelphia.
The Cardinals are 37-21 in games started by Adam Wainwright, Carpenter and Jaime Garcia this season.
Philadelphia's start of the second half hasn't gone as planned, having dropped two straight and four of five games since the All-Star break. The Phillies, who entered the midway point of the season with a four-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds, got a rough outing from starter Kyle Kendrick last night.
Kendrick was 4-0 in his career against St. Louis before surrendering seven runs on seven hits and three walks in five innings of work. Chad Durbin gave up the only run in relief for the Phillies, who are now six games off the lead in the National League East Division.
"My command was off all night. I was falling behind hitters," Kendrick said.
Shane Victorino had two RBI and Ryan Howard chipped in a pair of hits and knocked in a run in defeat. Jimmy Rollins had an RBI as well for the Phillies, who recently lost three of four games in Chicago and are 18-12 against NL Central foes in 2010.
Jamie Moyer has fared well in his career against St. Louis, going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 12 games (11 starts), and will take the mound Tuesday. Moyer has lost three straight starts since a personal three-game winning streak and lasted just three innings in Thursday's 12-6 road setback against the Cubs.
Moyer allowed six runs and five hits to fall to 9-9 in 18 starts to go along with a 4.88 earned run average. The veteran lefty is 4-6 in 10 road starts this season.
The Phillies had a four-game winning streak in the Gateway City come to an end last night. They still lead the 2010 season series by a 3-2 count.
<< Line of Scrimmage: NFL GameChangers '10: Specialists
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bill Belichick has achieved considerable
success during his 10-season stint as head coach of the New England Patriots,
but for those with the time or wherewithal to look at his resume' with a
magnifying glass
<< Monty selects vice captains for Ryder Cup
Wentworth, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - European Ryder Cup captain Colin
Montgomerie has selected Thomas Bjorn, Darren Clarke and Paul McGinley as his
vice captains for this year's team.
The 2010 Ryder Cup will be staged October 1-3 at the Cel
<< Miller expecting plenty of open looks with Heat
MIAMI (AP) -With just about every Miami Heat acquisition this summer, another recruiting story seems to emerge.Dwyane Wade helped lure LeBron James and Chris Bosh. James played a big role in talking Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mike Miller into coming to
<< Giants subdue Dodgers
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nate Schierholtz's two-run homer in the
fourth inning proved to be the difference, as the San Francisco Giants held
off the Los Angeles Dodgers, 5-2, in the opener of a three-game series between
these t
Dodgers' Kershaw goes for 10th win versus Lincecum-led Giants >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Dodgers young starter Clayton Kershaw has never
reached double digits in wins and will get a chance tonight against the NL
West-rival San Francisco Giants in the continuation of a three-game series
from Chavez Rav
Rangers try to deal spiraling Tigers a seventh straight loss >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Hunter hopes to deliver Texas' first series win in
Detroit since 2007 this evening, when the Rangers play the middle test of
their three-game set with the Tigers at Comerica Park.
Texas had lost 11 straight in Detroi
Reds hand ball to rookie Leake vs. Nationals >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Reds are going to be careful with how many innings
rookie Mike Leake racks up this season. They might be tempted to take the
leash off tonight given how well he pitched against the Nationals last time.
Leake
Cubs, Astros continue series at Wrigley Field >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs had the wind taken out of their sails in
last night's loss to the Houston Astros and will try for a measure of revenge
Tuesday in the second installment of a three-game series at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs wo
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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