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02/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The teams with the best and worst records in the NBA this season will go head-to-head at Quicken Loans Arena tonight, where the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers put an 11-game win streak on the line against the downtrodden New Jersey Nets.
Cleveland's current surge, tied with Boston and the Los Angeles Lakers for the longest string of consecutive wins in the league in 2009-10, has given the championship hopefuls a 41-11 record for the season and a comfortable six-game advantage over Southeast Division leader Orlando for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a 1 1/2-game edge on the Lakers for the best mark in the NBA.
The Cavaliers kept up their winning ways with Saturday's 113-106 home verdict over the New York Knicks, with LeBron James once again leading the way. The reigning league MVP established a franchise-best with 35 first-half points to help Cleveland build a commanding 74-54 lead at intermission, and finished with 47 along with eight rebounds and eight assists.
"I was able to shoot the ball extremely well, but still get my teammates involved," said James, who was named the Eastern Conference's Player of the Week on Monday. "When I'm on fire, I can go for a lot of points, but getting my teammates involved is good for us in the long run."
Shaquille O'Neal chipped in 19 points and Anthony Parker scored 11 for the Cavaliers, who continue to win despite injuries to two key members in Mo Williams and Delonte West.
West, who missed the last eight games due to a broken ring finger, did practice without incident on Monday and could be back in the lineup for tonight's matchup. Williams, who's second to James among Cleveland players in scoring (16.9 ppg) and assists (5.1 apg), hasn't played since January 19 because of a sprained left shoulder and is sidelined indefinitely.
The Cavs will be shooting for a 10th straight home victory tonight and are an NBA-best 22-3 at Quicken Loans Arena this season. In contrast, New Jersey is a woeful 1-26 on the road and has dropped 14 in a row since its lone triumph as the visitor, a 103-101 decision over Chicago on December 8.
The 4-46 Nets have also lost six straight games overall and 17 of its last 18 contests following Saturday's 99-92 defeat at Detroit. The team's latest loss was further marred by an injury to top player Devin Harris, who had to be helped off the court after colliding with teammate Jarvis Hayes in the game's final minute.
Harris, who put up a team-best 21 points and seven assists in the loss, was diagnosed with a sprained left shoulder and will be a game-time decision this evening. The 26-year-old missed nearly two weeks with a similar ailment last season.
This is my third sprained AC joint, so I just know how to brace it to make it feel better," Harris said after the game. "It's not as bad as the one I had last year."
Hayes bruised his left shin as a result of the incident and is expected to play tonight.
The Nets will be attempting to stop a stretch of six straight losses to the Cavaliers, with three of those defeats having taken place in Cleveland. The Cavs topped New Jersey by a 99-89 score at Quicken Loans Arena back on December 15.
<< Vols and 'Dores duke it out in pivotal SEC clash
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 12th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers will
take on the 22nd-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores this evening with an SEC battle
and state bragging rights on the line.
Tennessee has won its last three games to move to
<< Ranked foes meet in Big Ten battle
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 10th-ranked Michigan State Spartans
will try to keep their slim hold on the top spot in the Big Ten tonight, as
they host the sixth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena.
After opening their Big T
<< Illini and Badgers square off in Big Ten brawl
Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini carry a four-game
win streak into tonight's Big Ten Conference battle with the 11th-ranked
Wisconsin Badgers, who are tough to beat in Madison.
Illinois has quietly gotten itself in
<< Alabama visits Kentucky in SEC action
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Alabama Crimson Tide invade Rupp Arena
this evening for an SEC clash with the third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats.
Alabama is a respectable 13-10 overall, but that record is overshadowed by a
3-6 mark versus l
Skidding Heat host Rockets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat hope a return to south
Florida will cure their recent woes, as they try to halt a five-game losing
streak Tuesday versus the Houston Rockets at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Miami has fallen into a
Kings hope to snap long road losing streak in MSG vs. Knicks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wins have been hard to come by lately for the Sacramento
Kings, who will try to put the brakes on a six-game losing streak Tuesday
night against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
The Kings opened a three-game e
Thunder close out trip in Portland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oklahoma City Thunder hope to finish off a three-game
road trip in perfect fashion on Tuesday when they meet a Portland Trail
Blazers club minus All-Star Brandon Roy at the Rose Garden.
The Thunder improved t
Wizards return to hardwood in Charlotte >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Wizards return to the court after a slightly
longer break than anticipated in tonight's clash with the Charlotte Bobcats
from Time Warner Cable Arena.
Washington has not played since posting an impres
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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