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07/10/2010 - Inglewood, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Awesome Gem, ridden by David Flores, found room along the rail and was able to hold off defending champ Rail Trip to capture Saturday's $500,000 Hollywood Gold Cup at Hollywood Park.
The seven-year-old chestnut gelding was sent off as the 8-1 fourth choice in the six-horse field. Rail Trip was the 2-5 favorite, and 2009 Pacific Classic winner Richard's Kid was the 4-1 second pick.
Awesome Gem, trained by Craig Dollase, was never far off the pace that was being set by Compari in the 1 1/4-mile race. Rail Trip and jockey Rafael Bejarano found themselves on the outside in fourth as the field went up the backstretch.
Around the final turn, Rail Trip began his rally three wide with Awesome Gem sitting right behind Compari as the field entered the stretch. Rail Trip took the lead at the top of the stretch as Awesome Gem edged past Compari along the inside.
Awesome Gem and Rail Trip battled down the stretch to the finish. Awesome Gem posted a neck victory over the defending champ to record his first victory of the year. Richard's Kid finished third followed by Tres Borrachos, Compari and Cigar Man.
The time for the Gold Cup was 2:03.31 on Hollywood's sythetic track.
Owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, Awesome Gem went past the $2 million mark in career earnings. The Gold Cup win was worth $300,000 to bring the gelding's lifetime bankroll to $2,274,682. He has won seven of 36 career starts.
Awesome Gem had not won a race before Saturday since last October's Hawthorne Gold Cup at Hawthorne Race Course.
The victory is the third Gold Cup win for Flores. He won the race in 1991 with Marquetry and five years later aboard Siphon.
Awesome Gem returned $18.00, $4.40 and $2.40. Rail Trip paid $2.20 and $2.10, and Richard's Kid paid $2.20 to show.
Earlier in the day on the East Coast, a pair of top thoroughbreds came from off the pace to capture stakes races.
Leading three-year-old filly Blind Luck won a photo finish at Delaware Park to win the $250,000 Delaware Oaks. Ridden by Joel Rosario, Blind Luck covered the 1 1/16-miles in 1:43.34 on a sloppy track.
The winner of this year's Kentucky Oaks came from well off the pace to edge Havre de Grace at the wire. Derwin's Star finished third in the seven horse field followed by No Such Word, Worship the Moon, Calypso Queen and Listen In.
Trained by co-owner Jerry Hollendorfer, Blind Luck notched her eighth career victory in 12 starts. The Oaks win was worth $150,000 to bring her lifetime earnings to $1,538,712.
"She got away a little slow and sometimes she does that," said Hollendorfer. "I honestly was hoping she would have been a little closer. You know the good ones just find a way to get there. I mean she has been beaten before, but she is a very good filly and she just finds a way there. We are very grateful and very thankful. Joel (Rosario) is a very strong rider and he is one of the strongest finishers in the country. We are still looking at the Alabama (at Saratoga on August 21) for her next start."
Blind Luck paid $2.40, $2.20 and $2.10. Havre de Grace returned $3.60 and $2.80, and Derwin's Star paid $4.60 to show.
At Belmont Park, Gio Ponti successfully defended his crown in the $600,000 Man o'War for his first victory of the year. Approaching the furlong pole, Gio Ponti and rider Ramon Dominguez were four-lengths off the lead in the grass race. He came charging down the stretch to catch Mission Approved and win by a neck.
Rounding out the order of finish was 6-1 second choice Expansion followed by Bearpath, Midnite Silver, Interpatation, Grand Couturier and Strike a Deal.
The time for the 1 3/8-miles was 2:16.20 on a firm turf course.
Gio Ponti returned $2.80, $2.30 and $2.10. Mission Approved paid $17.80 and $7.40, and Expansion paid $2.80 to show.
The five-year-old, trained by Clement Christophe, was voted 2009 champion male turf horse as well as champion older thoroughbred male. He began 2010 with a third-place result in the Tampa Bay Stakes. In March he was third in the Dubai World Cup and last month was second in the Manhattan at Belmont Park.
"As a trainer, you get very excited when you train a horse as good as he is and you go into Grade 1 races, because he just trains so well and you know he's so good," said Clement. "So for me, and for my crew at the barn, it's very exciting to run that kind of horse. We are lucky to be involved with that kind of horse."
In his career Gio Ponti has won half of his 20 starts for $4.1 million. His next start will be in defense of his title in the Arlington Million on August 21.
<< Nash thinks Miami has great tools, needs a team
HARRISON, N.J. (AP) -Steve Nash says there is no doubt the Miami Heat have the talent to win an NBA title next year.The question the All-Star guard has is: Do they have the team?Speaking at halftime of a New York Red Bulls MLS game, Nash says he und
<< Braves' Jones back in lineup in 4-0 win over Mets
NEW YORK (AP) -When Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones had back spasms after one night in the team hotel in New York, his solution was easy: sleep on the floor.Jones was back in the starting lineup in Saturday's 4-0 victory over the New York
<< Report: Redskins OL Williams to miss season
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Post is reporting that
Redskins starting right guard Mike Williams could be sidelined for the 2010
season because of blood clots near his heart.
Team sources have told the paper
<< Dutch, Spain both eye history-making victory
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - History will be made at Soccer
City on Sunday in the final of the FIFA World Cup as either the Netherlands or
Spain will claim its first-ever World Cup title.
One of the two sides will becom
Furcal replaces Reyes on NL All-Star roster >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes will miss
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Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal was chosen to replace Reyes and will make his
second appearance in
Quentin powers ChiSox to seventh straight win >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Quentin clubbed two home runs and
Gavin Floyd pitched into the eighth inning as the Chicago White Sox took a 5-1
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Floyd (5-7) won
Myers strong again as 'Stros clip Cardinals >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Keppinger had two hits, including a home
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St. Louis in the middle contest of a three-game set.
Pedro Feliz chipped in with a
Creamer leads by three at suspended Women's Open >>
Oakmont, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paula Creamer was one-under par through 13
holes of the third round Saturday when play was halted for the day at the U.S.
Women's Open due to darkness.
Creamer was atop the leaderboard at minus-one and
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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